I Smelt a Rat

Sometimes moves just seem suspicious.

If you frequent around the live arena you can often pick tells from your poker opponents. Having read a lot of Mike Caro's stuff I spot some of these from time to time.

In the online game you cant stare at the villain and get a tell but there are timing tells to be had.

If you look at the following hand on paper it is pretty hard to figure out why I didn't go broke.

However, in the heat of battle this guy was giving off serious warning signs.

I have a tiny sample on the villain and he is playing 31/7 so he seems to be a fishy guy.

Hand Information

Game:	No Limit
Blind:	$0.50/ $1

Table Information

Seat1:	Player 1	($50)	Dealer
Seat2:	Player 2	($332.08)	Small Blind
Seat3:	Player 3	($106.01)	Big Blind
Seat4:	Player 4	($109.09)
Seat5:	Hero	($198.25)
Seat6:	Player 6	($98.50)
Seat7:	Player 7	($98.50)
Seat8:	Player 8	($62.01)
Seat9:	Player 9	($169.56)

Dealt to Hero

Preflop (Pot:1.50)

Player 4

FOLD

Hero

RAISE

$3

Player 6

FOLD

Player 7

FOLD

Player 8

FOLD

Player 9

CALL

$3

Player 1

FOLD

Player 2

RAISE

$5

Player 3

FOLD

Hero

CALL

$2

Player 9

CALL

$2

This tiny squeeze from the blinds will usually get no respect from me and will be immediately 4bet. However, the villain here had taken ages and I just smelt something fishy so decided to flat.

Flop   (Pot: $16.50)

Player 2

BET

$7

Hero

CALL

$7

Player 9

FOLD

This is a dream flop hitting my set and being deep with what seems like a fish. He tanks again forever and bets small into 2 players here.

This is a draw heavy board and 90% of the time I am raising here. I reckon that he probably has AA, KK or AK. I beat 2 of those hands but I want to try to drag along the 3rd player and then shove most turns. This is a highly risky play but I am so suspicious about his speed right about now.

Turn   (Pot: $30.50)

Player 2

CHECK

Hero

CHECK

Insta check here looks pretty fishy.

River   (Pot: $30.50)

Player 2

BET

$17

Hero

CALL

$17

I have to call but I am 95% sure I am beat here

Showdown:

Player 2  SHOWS

Hero  MUCKS

Player 2

wins the pot: $64.50

I guessed wrong with AA but the timing tells were so huge he really was face up.

Normal Shot Taking Pattern Resumed :(

I jumped up to NL100 ZOOM FR which is basically the highest ZOOM level that runs regularly. The NL200 and NL500 levels only occasionally run as there never seem to be enough players. The 6-max games seem to run more at those levels. Anyway as with all the shots I have taken this year the start has been pretty bad. I will persist though as I am witnessing enough bad play for me to be profitable at this level vs the field.

RE: Facing Turn Shove Against Unknown

Regarding the Hand History that I posted a few days ago. I hadn't realised at the time that the guy had just sat down and posted his blind out of turn. That's why there was no HUD stats on him.

If I had known this then the hand would have been an insta call. With the diamond draw and the fact that he was an unknown I was never folding although if it was certain regs making the same play I would have considered laying it down. I tanked for around 10 seconds which is an eternity in online games and then shoved it.

A bit of overkill with the river diamond but a nice pot all the same.

Something to consider when table selecting is chucking in a few of these deep tables. If you find a whale at a deep table they will usually be the biggest kind. All the top regs know this too so apart from the whale or 2 you will often also be up against the best players in the league too at these tables.

Happy Stacking..!!

The Upswing Continues......

It started on August 1st 2011 and just keeps going....

Sexy

Facing Turn Shove Against Unknown

I was put into a tricky spot vs an unknown player on a deep table.

I'm guessing that I will get a range of answers here. What would you do in this situation?

He raises and I 3bet my button with a sexy looking suited hand.

Take a look at the graphic.

For some reason there are no stats on him (reason to come in follow up post).

He leads the flop in a spot where I have decent equity:

I have a potential double gutter and back door flush too. I could raise here but if he has a set and shoves I don't really want to call with only around 35% chance in a deep pot. This is an excellent spot to float.

The turn is an awesome card and I hit my straight.

Then..... Bang....

I am faced with a huge shove which is 3x the pot due to the fact that we are deep and started the hand with 200BB effective. 

Does he not 3bet his AK pre for value vs a button raise that could be wide? Or would he just call with AK OOP because we are deep and he is not aggro? I can beat 89 which makes sense with the flop donk bet. Does he ever do this with a set or less? Surly this is AKhh and nothing else?

What do I do?

Who Will Win Euro 2012?

Its just kicked off but who do you fancy to win the whole thing?

If other, please specify in the comments section, Thanks.

Here are the main runners and riders:

Wtf?

I have pretty much seen it all at the poker tables over the years that I have been playing.

It still amazes me though as to what people are thinking when they make some plays.

Cue the latest wtf hand:

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Euro 2012 Preview

The eagerly anticipated Euro 2012 Championships kick off today in Poland and Ukraine.

The 16 teams that qualified will battle it out over the course of the next month to see who is the best in Europe.

There seems to be less hype in the UK than usual. I think we are finally realising that we are an outside shot and teams like Spain, Germany and Holland are far more skilled than us.

I will however be fully behind England to win this thing. We have a recently appointed manager in Roy Hodgson. He was also Liverpool manager not too long ago where he didn't do too well. He is vastly experienced however so lets hope he can put a good plan into action.

Here are the groups and fixtures:

Looking at the groups we should get through by beating both Sweden and Ukraine. Our toughest game is against France on June 11th. I'm not too sure if it is a good thing to get this fixture first. It may have been better to play Ukraine first and bag a win before taking on France. Then again this is Euro 2012 and to be the best you have to beat the best and a win in game 1 will set us up for the other 2 group fixtures.

Our main striker Wayne Rooney is suspended for the first 2 games so it will be interesting to see what line up goes out against France.

Group B looks like the group of death with 4 tough teams battling it out for 2 spots into the knock out stages. You can never rule out Germany and their history shows us that they are big comp players. They start up against Portugal on the 9th.

Spain and Italy should go through group C although it would be great to see the Republic of Ireland progress.

Pundits forecast Poland and Russia to top Group A. Watch out for Greece though who are on an impressive winning run.

Lets hope for an exciting event..!! The final is in Kiev on July 1st at the Olympic Stadium.

The Fastest Hand Ever

Usain Bolt runs the 100 metres sprint in just over 9.5 seconds.

Today I think I broke that record in a single hand of poker going to the turn.

On average over an hour on a single table I play roughly around 55-70 hands so on average each hand will take around 50-70 seconds or so.

Obviously all-in pre hands will take next to nothing to end but for a hand to get to the turn it usually takes a while.

The following hand happened in such a flash I didn't even see what cards he had till I checked the re-player.

This is an excellent example of how NOT to play a hand. My first error was that I was auto-piloting while playing 16 tables during a long session.

It was probably just over a 3hr session and it should have ended earlier as I was tired but I was still in play and pick up QQ. It intsa folds to me, I opened to 3x and then it insta folds to the BB who calls. It was a bit like a ZOOM hand but it was normal Full Ring. He then insta leads the flop and I call without even thinking for a second. My standard play here would be to raise but I was in a daze. This was my second mistake.

He then instas leads the turn and I min raise in a milli-second, he shoves and I snap him off. The hand was over in less than 10 seconds I reckon. My standard play would be to make a larger raise on the turn, closer to 3x (third mistake) and I would normally take my time on both the flop and turn.

Conclusion: Quit sessions when you are tired.
Variance: Mistakes don't always matter when the villain plays so badly with 9% equity.

0.4% Equity

June kicked off pretty well with me buying one of the new top tier FPP bonuses worth $1,600.

I then bagged a few winning pots and was approaching +$2k for the month after only 2 days when I got whacked yesterday with a few beats.

The following beat may well be the worst ever in my 7 years playing poker.

There was a huge whale at the table and in the last orbit he had gone even crazier and was 3bet jamming or open shoving most of his hands.

I look down at KK :) The whale acts after me but that shouldn't matter too much as he seems to be shoving very wide and this should be for stacks. An EP player opens, he is called by an MP player, I squeeze and whale shoves as predicted.

He has A6o and I am 72% favourite to win.

Bam, I flop a set....

Look at the percentages above and you see him at 0%. It is technically 0.4% and had been rounded down.

Then this

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Worst beat ever..!!