Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Variance Calculator

I thought it would be interesting to do an updated variance calculation on my win rate. It's been about 2yrs or so since I last did one.

This one the I used is from a site called pokerolymp. It is for cash game poker specifically and calculates the expected value, standard deviation and risk of ruin over a given time frame.

Here are my results:

I used a win rate of 2.5 which is about right for me. The Standard Deviation defaults to 65 for Full Ring.
You can see that I am expected to win 125 stacks over the course of 500,000 hands with a SD of 45 stacks.

The Graph looks like this:

There can be quite a big difference between the upper and lower standard deviation.

Will I go busto?:

To be safe I should keep around 50 BIs at which ever stake I'm playing.

Follow my friend "Eliize" in his journey to high stakes pokerwww.shloogy.com


  1. You should use your own Std Dev if want the result be more accurate, even when avg is 65 for FR, everyone have a different Std Dev. If you are using Hem std dev is on default stats on filter.

    Also, something to consider on Risk Of Ruin% on variance calculation is that this not include moving down at any point, so if you are ok to move down if running bad, 30-40bi should be more than fine.

  2. Thanks. I tried quite a few Std Dev's just to see the difference. My SD for the year is 71.

    I'm happy to move up or down in order to manage my bankroll correctly.


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