Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Variance Calculator


I thought it would be interesting to do an updated variance calculation on my win rate. It's been about 2yrs or so since I last did one.

This one the I used is from a site called pokerolymp. It is for cash game poker specifically and calculates the expected value, standard deviation and risk of ruin over a given time frame.

Here are my results:









I used a win rate of 2.5 which is about right for me. The Standard Deviation defaults to 65 for Full Ring.
You can see that I am expected to win 125 stacks over the course of 500,000 hands with a SD of 45 stacks.

The Graph looks like this:



































There can be quite a big difference between the upper and lower standard deviation.

Will I go busto?:














To be safe I should keep around 50 BIs at which ever stake I'm playing.



Follow my friend "Eliize" in his journey to high stakes pokerwww.shloogy.com



2 comments:

  1. You should use your own Std Dev if want the result be more accurate, even when avg is 65 for FR, everyone have a different Std Dev. If you are using Hem std dev is on default stats on filter.

    Also, something to consider on Risk Of Ruin% on variance calculation is that this not include moving down at any point, so if you are ok to move down if running bad, 30-40bi should be more than fine.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks. I tried quite a few Std Dev's just to see the difference. My SD for the year is 71.

    I'm happy to move up or down in order to manage my bankroll correctly.

    ReplyDelete

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