Saturday, 15 September 2012

Calling Down on Aggression Factor

I am mixing ZOOM NL50 and NL25 with some NL10 this morning.

In this hand I was left with a tricky call.

In recent times I am always shown the nuts here or at least trips but you must play the hand and villain on their merits. I have 1.5k hands on this guy so a nice sample.

My decision on the river was determined by the jump he had from his overall to flop to turn to river AF:

Here is the hand. The turn check is perfect vs this guy. Against most other players I would bet the turn too.


  1. I know what you were thinking - Q on the turn is terrible for you because what else is he flatting the large-ish 3bet and the flop cbet, but I can't help but wonder if you thought the Q was bad on the turn, why you snap the riv? Despite his riv AF. I think more important here is his 3bet flatting range. Also, the reason you shouldn't take AF on the river into such high regard is because unless you're talking a reg, not too many people are actually getting enough hands on the river for the stat to be meaningful.

  2. I should have stated that he only folds to 50% of 3bets pre. This would lead me to believe that he set mines with any pair and probably calls with bigs + more.

    He could easily float with any pair on the flop. When the Q hits the turn I would suggest this is only the very top of his range and he could still be holding a lot less. He may even 4bet QQ pre but I cant remember his 4bet stat.

    Maybe I was wrong to check the turn but this type of player will spaz 88-JJ + missed flushes and turn his hand into a bluff on the river reasonably often

    I have 1.5k hands on him as stated and the graphic shows you 56 occurances where we see him at the river. This is more than enough for the AF river stat to be useful

  3. Agreed; rosh. Only folding 50% to 3bets is quite an unprofitable range. You definitely beat me to the punch as to wondering whether you make more cbetting the turn or letting him bomb the riv like you did.

    Regardless, I certainly hope you took note of his obvious AF.

    Still jealous that you guys across the pond can continue to play online while I have to travel 50 minutes to a B&M casino :-(. Good luck buddy!

  4. The US will be back online, pretty sure of that..!!


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